Posted in: Mr. Tito
Mr. Tito from the Retirement Home - The DEATH of Pro Wrestling in 20 Years and Wrestlemania 28 Predictions!
By Mr. Tito
Mar 28, 2012 - 2:08:07 AM

FOLLOW Mr. Tito on Twitter: @titowrestling

So as I sit here at the LoP Retirement Home, alongside many old friends like Brander, Hollywood G, Jaymz, Coolbeans, James Phire, Chris Dailey, Davey Boy, Krueges, Chill-N, Nick Ponton, and a host of many others, the nurses let me out of the recreation room to write one last column before I go "out with a bang" with a full blown Wrestlemania 28 Review that I hope to post within 5 minutes of the end of the show. That's right, I will be writing the column live as Wrestlemania happens for my loyal readers as a "THANK YOU" for many great years of support.

But as a retiree, I could be getting senile, but I'm seeing some very disturbing trends regarding pro wrestling and the WWE. Just today, the "going home" Monday Night RAW show before Wrestlemania 28 did just a 3.0 rating and has actually trended downward for the past few weeks. That's very troubling for the WWE as they attempt to sell their biggest show of the year to the widest audience possible. Then, I'm looking at Pay Per View numbers. Several 2011 Pay Per Views were admitted to the Top 10 worst bought WWE shows of all time list... Survivor Series 2011 just added 37,000 with the Rock's first wrestling appearance since 2004. The early indication is that the Elimination Chamber's buys for 2012 is down versus 2011, which isn't good heading into Wrestlemania 28.

Then, I look at the WWE stock price... Working in the financial industry, I'm alarmed at how stagnant the WWE stock is, especially heading into the Wrestlemania season. Through 3/27/2012, the WWE stock is priced at $8.98 per share. This time last year, the WWE stock was at $12.74 per share on 3/28/2011 in what I'd argue was a much less Bull market than what you're seeing in the stock market today. WWE's 52 week range through 3/27/12, according to Yahoo! Finance, is $8.67 to $12.93 per share. At $8.99, we're closer to the lower end of that range despite the overall stock market pushing upward (although, I'd argue the market is heavily inflated, thank you loose Federal Reserve and low interest rates).

Anyway, without getting too technical on the Stock Market, stocks are typically "long term investments". In other words, unless you're good at buying low and selling high on the upswing, investors buy shares of stock with the future in mind. In other words, if the company seems to have a bright future, is a good buy even during a recession, and has a great rate of return that exceeds other financial instruments, stocks are BOUGHT and prices are driven UPWARD. But the WWE stock remains stagnant... What does that tell you as a wrestling fan? Well, that suggests that Investors are NOT BUYING THE WWE'S FUTURE. There exists a lack of confidence in the WWE as a company and its key decision makers to make the company more profitable than it is today. In other words, the company peaked and could very well be on the downslide.

And I believe it is... In fact, I'll make an even BOLDER decision than investors... In my humble opinion, the pro wrestling industry will be DEAD in 20 years. Part of it is systemic and actually out of the industry's control. The other part resides in the big corporation that rules the professional wresting industry, the WWE and its decision makers.

For one, the pro wrestling industry and the WWE has a distinct problem competing against Mixed Martial Arts (MMA), namely the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) company. With the boom of UFC especially, which is also hurting professional boxing, pro wrestling's thickest demographic, the 13 to 25 year old bracket, now has a choice between what is REAL and what is STAGED in terms of sporting events. MMA is real with legitimate outcomes of a completely unscripted fight. The WWE is completely scripted in its finishes. When choosing to allocate scarce income resources towards Pay Per View purchases, this is where the WWE gets screwed. MMA has more appeal as fans tuning in get to see something real and legitimate as opposed to the WWE's contrived results that are scripted ahead of time.

Thus, the WWE and the pro wrestling industry have to WORK HARDER to convince 13 to 25 year olds to watch something that is completely staged as a sporting event. In other words, WWE/pro wrestling has to convince their fans to suspend their belief system of reality and act as though they are watching a legitimate sporting event. Unlike MMA/UFC, the WWE and pro wrestling has to manufacture a "sense of urgency" to convince wrestling fans to want more of its product. With MMA/UFC, fans know that it's real and thus have an inherit belief system that MMA/UFC fighters are best in the world and that their titles are legitimate.

That's where the second half of the story comes into play. The rise of MMA/UFC is a big, big problem for the WWE and pro wrestling industry and cannot be stopped... But wrestling can compete with MMA/UFC if it so chooses. How? Boost the quality of pro wrestling. Make fans want to suspend their beliefs of reality and actually believe that Rock/Cena actually hate each other and have a real "sense of urgency" for winning that match at Wrestlemania 28. The Rock, to his credit, somewhat showed this by explaining all of his victories of the past against "All Time Greats" like Steve Austin and Hulk Hogan, yet he didn't have a win over John Cena to add to his resume. Another great example of this "sense of urgency" that got people watching was the contract situation of CM Punk heading into the Money in the Bank 2011 Pay Per View which actually grew in buyrate.

But overall, the WWE is failing as the industry leader and numbers are declining or flat as seen by their own reported numbers (10-K filings, per SEC.gov):

Monday Night RAW Ratings (Average Weekly)
-2006: 4.0
-2007: 3.7
-2008: 3.4
-2009: 3.7
-2010: 3.5
-2011: 3.6

Total Pay Per View Buys
-2006: 6,241,100 (16 events)
-2007: 5,200,800 (15 events)
-2008: 5,034,400 (14 events)
-2009: 4,490,000 (14 events)
-2010: 3,361,000 (13 events)
-2011: 3,382,000 (13 events)

Average North American Attendance
-2006: 4,990
-2007: 6,600
-2008: 6,400
-2009: 6,500
-2010: 6,300
-2011: 6,000

Noting again some of the worst bought Pay Per Views of all time (WWE Vengeance 2011 especially, the 2nd worst bought WWE show of all time) and the WWE RAW ratings actually dipping below 3.0 for a brief period of time to end 2011, the WWE has hit a wall. What they are presently doing, combined with the WWE roster they are presently utilizing isn't working. Whatever TNA and Ring of Honor is doing is not gaining ground on wrestling market share, although the WWE Corporation is a difficult dragon to slay for its dominance.

The WWE is the industry leader and should be prompting change in the industry. Otherwise, not fixing what's broken will allow the WWE to remain stagnant with their numbers or continue to decline in some areas. Worst yet, I'd argue that the WWE is "running on fumes" of the past. They are too dependent on the Attitude Era and the Ohio Valley Wrestling Class of 2002 to continue to carry their shows. They are forced to rely on Triple H, Undertaker, and the Rock to boost Wrestlemania interest lately while John Cena and Randy Orton, from the 2002 Ohio Valley Wrestling call-up, are the WWE's top stars. What would the WWE do if those 5 wrestlers just decided to retire?

And that's the talent part of the equation. After the Great 2002 Ohio Valley Wrestling Call-up that has given us 10 solid years of good to great wrestlers (John Cena, Brock Lesnar, Shelton Benjamin, Charlie Haas, Randy Orton, Batista, and more), the WWE developmental territory has been questionable the change of responsibility from Jim Ross to John Laurinaitis as the head of "Talent Relations" officially through 2004, with the transition occurring before that. While Laurinaitis has given us some good prospects, we aren't seeing the army that the Jim Ross leadership provided. 10 years from now, can Laurinaitis's developmental wrestlers continue to be name wrestlers like Orton and Cena have done between 2002 through 2012? Good luck, as MMA/UFC's growth is now challenging to grab many talented athletes that once gave becoming a pro wrestler a first thought.

But these developmental wrestlers need to be placed in a position to succeed. That's where EVP of Creative comes into play. After Vince Russo bolted for WCW during late 1999, not many people know the name of his replacement named Chris Kreski who took over as "lead writer" for Russo during late 1999 and was the lead creative person for much of the highly successful 2000. Kreski was actually a writer for various Mtv shows before his WWE time, but he was good in his ability to actually storyboard WWE storylines. His storyboarding was mocked, as many pro wrestling personnel didn't "get it", but Kreski's storylines were consistent and had long-run payoffs for a very solid 2000 year.

Late in 2000, he stepped aside to remain as a contributor and consultant while Stephanie assumed the role of lead writer and thickened her role once Kreski left in 2002. I always consider the drop-off point to be the announcement of Rikishi as the driver of the car who hit Steve Austin, but you could begin to feel a storyline drop-off by the end of 2000 and into 2001. Then, of course, was the WCW/ECW Invasion. Complete failure. The World Titles were completely diminished under Stephanie. The "Babe Ruth of Pro Wrestling", Hulk Hogan, only has 6 WWE World Title reigns yet the WWE has completely inflated total number of titles in ridiculous ways like Randy Orton being a 9-time champion, Edge being a 11-time champion, and John Cena having 12-world titles. What the hell?

Where I take real liberty with Stephanie is her poor build-up of wrestlers. Her recent belief of thinking that a World Title will get a wrestler over is ridiculous. Wrestlers like Jack Swagger, Miz, Randy Orton in 2004, Alberto Del Rio, Daniel Bryan, and Sheamus have all suffered by being given a World Title when they were NOT OVER and still somewhat green as main event level wrestlers. The arrogance and utter laziness of thinking that a World Title victory will get a wrestler over is absurd. The actual belt is just a physical object, but to be believed as champion and actually putting more butts in seats and more eyeballs on television is what should be the goal of the WWE Creative Staff for each main eventer. I'm curious to see how Cody Rhodes is pushed, as he's proudly displayed himself as Intercontinental Champion for a long period of time which many previous Main Eventers actually did before it was their turn to shine as World Champion.

And speaking of Stephanie, you cannot deny the newly titled EVP of Talent, John Levesque or Triple H for his influence on the product for the past decade. As a wrestler married to the EVP of Creative and son-in-law of the Board Chairman, Vince McMahon, he's had a "conflict of interest" in juggling himself as a performer and what's best for the company creatively. His influence exists on the product as the top guy and for who actually listens to him.

Can't go without blaming Kevin Dunn. As a producer of a television product, as he is EVP of Television Production, he's top notch. The WWE shows look great and they are stunning to watch in High Definition. Dunn should be highly praised for being a great television producer. But his influence is being obsessed with a good looking television product and not on the actual wrestling product being good. He's not only big on the soap opera style, but also on incredible amounts of video packages that flood WWE shows. I'm sorry, but I can barely endure when 40% of wrestling shows are stuffed with video packages.

The "Buck Stops Here" with Vince McMahon, the CEO and Chairman of the WWE Corporation. He could hold his Executive Vice Presidents, some of which are 10+ year senior managers, accountable for results. He could challenge them to innovate to allow for the WWE to evolve not only as a company, but to help present pro wrestling as a cool substitute for Mixed Martial Arts. However, Vince won't yell at family and he's a very loyal friend as long as you say "yes" to his grand ideas. Better yet, Dunn/Stephanie/Laurinaitis/Triple H can't even speak out against Vince. Vince is still the majority shareholder of the WWE and what he says goes. But Vince makes his share of mistakes as the ultimate decision maker and I also believe that his company still wears the scars of the Chris Benoit incident, along with many drug-related deaths.

We're stuck in the mud here, folks, and the WWE has some serious internal and systemic issues that they MUST manage over the next few years or the pro wrestling industry is screwed. The WWE is the leader in the pro wrestling industry and everyone, unfortunately, has to follow the leader. Until Vince McMahon takes initiative himself or begins to fully challenge his EVP's to do better, the next 10 years are going to see the WWE thinning out as a product. And remember, they are highly dependent on that USA Networks deal to exist, especially when cable/satellite carriers are struggling to carry the WWE Network. I figure in 10 years, at this rate, the WWE is in serious trouble as a company and then 10 years after that (thus, making it 20), pro wrestling will go the way of the dinosaur when other companies realize that they cannot overcome the systemic issues that pro wrestling sees (MMA taking its demographics).

And I'm swallowing my pride on this, as I suggested 5 years ago that UFC was "just a trend" that would go away and wouldn't affect pro wrestling... OOPS!

Mr. Tito's PHAT Wrestlemania 28 Predictions - What SHOULD Happen / What WILL Happen

For those who haven't played, I give you my advice (what SHOULD happen) and then give a prediction on what the WWE will actually book (what WILL happen).

Kelly Kelly/Maria Menounos vs. Beth Phoenix/Eve
I was predicting that Eve vs. Kelly Kelly would happen as a singles Divas match but it appears that the WWE is holding off on that after Wrestlemania. The WWE opted instead to attempt to get mainstream media attention from Maria Menounos, the "Extra" host, appearing in a match, possibly taking from the model of adding Snooki to the show last year (seriously).
What SHOULD HAPPEN = WHAT WILL HAPPEN: I believe that Kelly Kelly and Maria Menounos win just to delay Eve vs. Kelly Kelly for a future date. The WWE wants to get the celebrity over and I actually agree with that move, especially if this is a tag team match. I figure Eve gets pinned here with Beth Phoenix getting PISSED... Thus, Eve has a nice Spring/Summer of booking for her in the form of defeating Kelly Kelly and then pursuing Beth Phoenix for the Divas Title thereafter.

Team Teddy Long vs. Team John Laurinaitis (winner causes GM for both brands)
I really hate pro wrestling "authority figure dick measuring contests", especially when both General Managers have to put leftover wrestlers on their team to determine if they remain employed as GM's. That's right, the rest of the Wrestlemania card takes away actual talent that might otherwise help Teddy or Laurinaitis retain their job.
What SHOULD HAPPEN = WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Laurinaitis's team is logical to win, as Teddy being on both brands doesn't work because Teddy Long is a face GM. Both shows need an antagonist to be the authority figure and John is as good as any.

Randy Orton vs. Kane
Call it what it is, but it's a good Wrestlemania win for Randy Orton over the soon-to-be 45 year old Kane. It could be a surprisingly good match, as Kane can go and Randy Orton is in his prime as an in-ring worker. Someone on Twitter (I apologize for forgetting their name) pointed out the finish...
What SHOULD HAPPEN = WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Randy Orton counters Kane's Chokeslam with an RKO in midair. And I'm sure the announcers will cream all over themselves when they see it.

Cody Rhodes(c) vs. Big Show for Intercontinental Title
So much for the Shaq vs. Big Show match, not that I'm complaining about that loss... Seems like a big mismatch and Cody Rhodes has mostly resorted to insulting the Big Show with past bloopers of Big Show's career in the WWE. Rhodes is quite correct, as the WWE could have made him a bigger monster than he really was.
What SHOULD happen: Cody Rhodes retains and continues to remain strong in the midcard, as IC Champion, as he awaits his turn. The Intercontinental Title just seems odd around the Big Show's waist.
What WILL happen: Big Show wins the Intercontinental Title over Cody Rhodes. Why? I believe that the WWE wants to reward Big Show for the humiliation of losing the World Title so soon to Daniel Bryan after Big Show won the title from Mark Henry. Not just the title itself, but winning on Wrestlemania. Vince is good on paybacks like that.

Daniel Bryan(c) vs. Sheamus for the World Heavyweight Title
Dark match last year, World Title match this year. Could be a fantastic match but it will depend WHERE on the card it ends up. If, for example, it directly follows Jericho/Punk or Triple H/Undertaker, it's screwed on crowd heat. This match needs to win over the crowd and positioning it poorly on the card will play a big difference in the flow and acceptance of the wrestlers in the match.
What SHOULD HAPPEN = WHAT WILL HAPPEN: I think that the WWE has seen the "error of their ways" by allowing Sheamus to win the Royal Rumble and thus Daniel Bryan retains. I'm guessing that a possible Randy Orton (face) versus Daniel Bryan (heel) is in the works after Wrestlemania, too. That, and to Daniel Bryan's credit, his time as champion has seen higher Smackdown ratings... Sheamus still needs work getting over as a wrestler for him to obtain another World Title.

CM Punk(c) vs. Chris Jericho for the WWE Title
Many are complaining that this could be the first match of the night. So what? I have NO PROBLEM with hot openers, as it often sets the tone for a good Wrestlemania. Just face it, Rock/Cena and Undertaker/Triple H are big freakin' deals. It's just a shame that the WWE Creative Staff resorted to Chris Jericho attacking CM Punk for his family being past alcoholics, drug addicts, and Punk's parents getting married after Punk was born. Why can't wrestlers just HATE each other? Better yet in this match, Jericho could just want to be WWE Champion... Not hard to book...
What SHOULD Happen: I would like to see a Chris Jericho WWE Title victory to give him a good heel run on the RAW roster through the summer before he leaves again. RAW is lacking in a main event heel that is actually over (Miz, Del Rio, Ziggler, not cutting it) and I see real dollar signs in pushing John Cena vs. Chris Jericho again.
What WILL happen: WWE doesn't like uncertainty and if Jericho isn't around for a full year, they might just use him to put over other wrestlers. With that logic, CM Punk wins the match. I could certainly see, however, that Jericho wins and then prompts a series of rematches with CM Punk throughout the Summer. Nothing wrong with that... Just don't embrace the drink!

Triple H vs. Undertaker, Hell in a Cell with Shawn Michaels as "special guest referee"
Rematch from last year, as Triple H lost but physically abused the Undertaker in the process. Thus, we need a more extreme match to justify this feud's intensity. Then, you add to it Shawn Michaels whom the Undertaker dogged last year. I seriously thought that Shawn Michaels would wrestle in this match, but there's always next year for a 3 Way Match, announced 1 year in advance...
What SHOULD HAPPEN: Undertaker wins #20 no matter what, but it should be clean without any "sports entertainment" to taint Undertaker's Wrestlemania legacy. Oh wait, I see some big turd matches among those 20 matches...
What WILL Happen: I believe at some point, Triple H is going to eat some Sweet Chin Music. Whether it's a case of the Undertaker refusing to cover Triple H after HBK hits Triple H or the Undertaker just doesn't see it... Shawn is going to do something in this match and Triple H will probably lose the match because of it.

John Cena vs. the Rock
Seems like this match was booked 5 years ago... Both tried to talk their way into hyping this match, but many promos fell flat or felt obsolete. Still, the match stands for itself, as the Rock was "the man" through 2004 and John Cena has been "the man" ever since. If THIS match fails to draw in viewers above the Wrestlemania 27 buys, or better yet, is below the Wrestlemania 26 buy number, the WWE has serious problems creatively. I figure that this match will surprise many people on how good it actually is, as both wrestlers have a lot of pride on the line to make the match look great.
What SHOULD Happen: John Cena wins. He's the #1 star of the WWE while Rocky is an actor now. This is the WWE's biggest stage and their top star shouldn't be defeated by a ghost from the Attitude Era past. A loss would hurt Cena's viability as the company's top draw, in my opinion.
What WILL happen: Rock wins. WWE wants the mainstream coverage that it brings and they also want Rocky to keep coming back to the WWE to help subsidize the shows with needed starpower. I figure a SummerSlam rematch would allow for John Cena to "get his win back". Rocky is generous with his put overs (Brock Lesnar, for example), but the WWE wants him around...

Hope you enjoyed my 2nd to last column... Remember, FULL BLOWN Wrestlemania 28 Review Column to be posted here on LordsofPain.net / WrestlingHeadlines.com, hopefully 5 minutes after the show ends. Hit refresh repeatedly or await for my Tweet to link you to the column (@titowrestling).

Just chill... Till the next episode!

@titowrestling