Some of AEW’s biggest moments in company history have been steeped at Double or Nothing. From Cody Rhodes breaking the throne to Jon Moxley appearing at the end of the first show to decimate Kenny Omega, the paradigm shifting promo that followed it, and nearly every Stadium Stampede or Anarchy in the Arena that came to help define the springtime pay-per-view.
The 2026 edition is no different, featuring the return of Stadium Stampede and its staple participants, Darby Allin defending his AEW title against former titleholder MJF, Thekla defending the women’s title in a fatal 4-way, and FTR defending their tag team titles against Adam Copeland and Christian Cage in an I Quit Match. Those are among eight other matches to round out the 12 match card.
I have to say though, where some DoNs feel like they’re a blowoff event for bigger feuds, nearly half of the total Owen Hart qualifiers are slotted for the event. This kind of makes the event more like a starting point for the summer than a marked point where bigger moments get the stage they’re due. There are some good matches here, but it feels like the marquee matchup is undoubtedly MJF and Darby for the AEW championship and the card otherwise builds toward the end of the night.
The Predictions Record So Far…
Coming out of WWE’s Backlash I ran the table going 5/5 on the night to bring the total to 26.5/38 (or 26.5-11). One thing I will say for tonight’s card is that I’m not necessarily confident in what I think the outcomes could be. The Owen matchups are kind of predictable, but overall I think this event is really open ended with how the outcomes can play out.
Can I get a bonus point though if I predict that I’m going to do poorly (50% or less)? Can I get two if I go 0/12? Double FOR Nothing? Get it?
I’ll get going now.
Double or Nothing 2026
Typically what we do here for AEW cards given their usual length of half of your waking hours is feature about 4-5 key matchups with a little more thought behind them, with the rest just giving quick thoughts on them. I’ll take it a step further here and break out the Owen Hart Cup matches from the other matches before getting on to the main title matches and likely main event.
The Buy-in and Featured matches
Divine Dominion vs. Zayda Steel and Viva Van:Â This is a tag team title eliminator match on the preshow for the women’s championships featuring Megan Bayne and Lena Kross against Zayda Steel and Viva Van. The champions have looked good since winning the titles at Dynasty, dominating most of their matches since they formed in March. That’s the important piece here when breaking this down — they are currently 10-0 since their formation. This is also their fourth straight 5-minute title eliminator challenge, of which they are currently 3-0. I think this combination of Van and Steel is the best bet of those we’ve seen so far, but as 10-0 world tag team champions, I’d be hesitant to stop Bayne and Kross’ momentum with a team that has the optics of being thrown together. Winner: Divine Dominion
Boom & Doom (Big Boom A.J. and QT Marshall) and the Conglomeration (Mark Briscoe, Roderick Strong and Orange Cassidy) vs. Shane Taylor Promotions (Shane Taylor, Anthony Ogogo, Shawn Dean, Carlie Bravo and Lee Moriarty):Â I really could make this shorter than the match listing. STP hasn’t consistently had a platform where optically it looks like they’ll succeed in showcases like this. Lee Moriarty is the exception. I think they’ve been booked well enough to appear as a threat but not much beyond that. I have a hard time putting them over Boom & Doom and the Conglomeration. A.J. is consistently booked strong, and Cassidy, Strong and Briscoe are consistently on AEW television. They’re just the logical choice, and if STP does win I hope it builds toward something worthwhile. Winner: Boom & Doom + the Conglomeration
Death Riders (Claudio, Daniel Garcia and Wheeler Yuta) vs. the Opps (Anthony Bowens, Hook and Shibata):Â I could go either way on this one. In either case we’d be looking for Bowens and Yuta to take the pinfalls, and I’d frankly not rule out some sort of no contest. Although I do believe the Death Riders will win, and while I can make this same argument for Moxley later in the night, I’m pretty confident Will Ospreay will beat Samoa Joe in their Owen Cup qualifier. Because of that, I don’t see the Opps losing because 1) Them winning saves face, and 2) I think they are making a big enough deal about Bowens joining that it would be counter-productive to have the Opps lose here. Conversely you can easily have one Death Rider take a pinfall and it won’t affect how they’re perceived. I think the Opps have more to gain, whereas either way the Death Riders maintain their standing on the AEW depth chart. Winner: The Opps
AEW International Championship – Kazuchika Okada (c) vs. Konosuke Takeshita: This feels long overdue at this point. I’m also not sure the feud ends here predominantly because I think this could finally be the point where Takeshita gets booted from the Callis family as Don is forced to choose the horse he wants to back. Okada retains the International championship here after a very, very good match that sees Okada cheat to win with Callis’ help. I think these two are then going to continue on through the summer, especially with Forbidden Door around the corner. There’s been enough build in terms of the tensions built between them that they need to finally pay some of that off, and I think you do that with a dirty Okada win. Winner: Okada
Owen Hart Cup
Athena vs. Mina Shirakawa:Â Unless Mina is being setup for an ROH title contention run, I don’t see why you’d have Athena lose in the opening round. Athena is at a minimum making it to round 2 where I’m also expecting Sareee to meet up with her after dispatching Skye Blue. I honestly think the winner comes out of this bracket now, but that’s hard to say for sure with the wild card spot, Persephone and Hazuki on the other side. I wouldn’t expect the wild card to be earth shattering either. But as we are getting far too ahead of ourselves, let’s circle back to Athena. Despite being ROH champion forever, she’s never fully gotten her due in proper AEW, and I think her winning this year is a good move. There’s no indication that Sareee has signed for more than her match with Blue, but she’d have to otherwise be another favourite. Thinking just in terms of who is signed and could use a marquee win, I think it’s Athena to the end. Winner: Athena
Swerve Strickland vs. Bandido: This feud has been boiling over on the stovetop for a few weeks now and it’s great seeing the super intense Swerve back in the driver seat. My betting money is on Swerve here, although there is something else to think about in this bracket. Given that Tony Khan is a thoroughbred nostalgia junkie, I don’t think it’s totally ridiculous to see Bandido and Brody King wrestle in round two. They’re on the same end of the bracket, and if we were hypothetically looking to continue Swerve vs. Bandido after the tournament for the ROH title, you could have Bandido and Brody win, have Swerve cost Bandido the match to let King move on to the finals and then conceivably have Ospreay vs. King in the finals at Forbidden Door. That’s if we’re going the partner vs. partner route, which I’m less of a fan of, but it’s a logical path through the tournament. Counterpointing that though, you could easily have Swerve run through them both to get to the finals. This is just realistically how you need to look at these from match to match. If you look at it as a whole, Swerve is probably going to the finals. Winner: Swerve
Samoa Joe vs. Will Ospreay: Speaking of looking at the big picture… is there anyone out there who doesn’t believe Ospreay is winning this tournament? I love Joe and wish he wasn’t being sacrificed to the Animus in the first round, but it is what it is. I think this match will serve its purpose to establish this supposed “new” Death Rider re-crafted version of Ospreay into the killer he’s intended to be. I think this could be a very physical, high-impact match that will end violently in a way that would make Ezio Auditore nod in approval. Just looking at the bracket, putting Mark Davis and Jack Perry directly beneath them potentially gives away Ospreay’s path to the end, and I think Davis still needs a receipt from Will. So am I predicting a Will Ospreay vs. Swerve final at Forbidden Door because it’s the biggest match in the tournament? Yes, I am. If not, then Ospreay vs. King is a really good second option. Winner: Will “Ezio” Ospreay.
Stadium Stampede
Chris Jericho, Hurt Syndicate (Lashley and Benjamin) and the Elite (Omega, Perry, and the Young Bucks) vs. The Demand (Ricochet, Kaun, Liona), Don Callis Family (Andrade and Mark Davis), and the Dogs (Finlay and Connors):Â I don’t think this is worth overanalyzing, so here are some stats for you. Between Stadium Stampede and Anarchy in the Arena, AEW has held this type of match seven times (six at DoN, one at All In Wembley), with the 2026 Double or Nothing hosting Stadium Stampede for the third time. It’s also the first at DoN since 2021. The Elite as a contingent have won twice, with Kenny Omega and Okada subbing for each other between 2020 and 2024. Chris Jericho-led teams have won twice, and Kenny Omega led-teams have also won twice. The Young Bucks have been on two winning teams with both Omega and Okada, with their 2024 partner Perry joining them in the 2026 edition. The only times someone not connected to Jericho or the Elite won was in 2023 when Blackpool Combat Club won both respective Anarchy and Stampede matches.
In 2025 the winning team consisted of Swerve Strickland, Omega, the Opps and Willow Nightingale. Of the people in the 2026 match, the Jacksons, Omega and Jericho have appeared at least three times a piece, with the Young Bucks being in four of the seven so far. Coming into 2026 the heels have held the upper hand winning four of the seven matches. In total, since AEW shifted to Anarchy in the Arena, the heels have won 4 of the 5 matches including the All In Stadium Stampede. Generally faces are 2-1 in Stampede matches, and the heels are 3-1 in Anarchy matches.
That in consideration, I think the faces are due a win, and with Jericho’s team having the most experience in these matches, they should pick up the victory here. Winner: Jericho, Hurt Syndicate and The Elite
Main Event
AEW Women’s World Championship – Thekla (c) vs. Jamie Hayter vs. Hikaru Shida vs. Kris Statlander: If you wanted to take the title off Thekla, the opportunity to do it cleanly would be in a match featuring three former world champions. Choose any two and you could run a scenario where Thekla is subdued, preoccupied, etc. and have one of others get a decision to regain the championship. However, the longer she holds the championship I’m less onboard with the idea of taking the title off her in this way because she’s done enough as champion to earn a direct title pinfall or submission loss. Moreover, I don’t think it happens at Double or Nothing with Forbidden Door on the horizon. Thekla has proven to be an entertaining champion, and I think if anything Thekla will be the one capitalizing on other people’s mistakes here. That includes any miscommunications with Shida and Statlander, which I think means Hayter is getting caught in the crossfire. Thekla losing feels relatively imminent, but not right now. Thekla retains amid in-match chaos. Winner: Thekla
AEW World Tag Team Championships – FTR (c) vs. Adam Copeland and Christian Cage:Â We’re at a point in this feud where the title change needs to happen, and more directly, I think it will happen. These two teams have explored every avenue during their feud, and I think there are far too many options left on the table with multiple dynamics from a champion-challenger perspective to simply have Cage and Cope break up due to a stipulation. Those options can still include FTR, and will surely include the Young Bucks. The realities are what they are though, and simply put Copeland, Cage, and FTR are on borrowed time in professional wrestling.
For Copeland and Cage, those are just the realities of their careers winding down. However, that’s also true with FTR if you take them at their word that they will retire when their contracts run up in 2027. I think a title change here that dovetails into a bigger multi-team feud for the championships that can run the balance of the year has to happen sooner than later. And I think as much as you might disagree with the prospect of a Cope and Cage title run, I don’t think there’s any stopping it at this point.
As we head into the biggest shows on AEW’s calendar over the next few months I’d argue that Cope and Cage as tag team champions gives the marquee a fresh jolt of adrenaline. Legacy is the central theme here, and that applies to the Bucks and FTR too. FTR’s current reign sits at around 183 days, which is just shy of their second and longest of three reigns. To this point they have defended the championships seven times with this being their eighth defence. I think after seven months it’s time for a pivot and the story naturally calls for a title change. Winner: Adam Copeland and Christian Cage
AEW Continental Championship – Jon Moxley (c) vs. Kyle O’Reilly:Â Moxley and O’Reilly have been circling each other for some time, and it seems no matter what O’Reilly looks strong in all of their matches. Since October 2025 they have had four singles matches with Kyle winning by DQ, pinfall at Full Gear 2025, in addition to another bout that ended in a double count out, and this past week they went to a time limit draw. This one’s tricky because I think there’s more to consider than you’d think. On the surface, it’s a title defence for a championship Moxley has held since December. In that time he has defended it three times — with this being the fourth — and has won nine Continental Championship eliminator matches out of 10, with the difference being this past week where O’Reilly lasted the time limit to earn the shot. That makes Moxley 9-0-1 in eliminators, and 3-0 in title matches.
As the story goes, O’Reilly has been a consistent threat to Mox, having submitted him twice, been the only one to survive an eliminator match with him, and above all of Moxley’s opponents, been the only one he can’t “solve.” I don’t know if this is just years of WWE booking etched in my brain, but that tells me there’s a low chance O’Reilly wins here simply because if this is a blow off to their feud, Moxley likely should win to continue on as champion. I’m unsure of where he goes if he loses. I’ll add a wrinkle to that too, and only because of the story they’re cooking with Ospreay. It wouldn’t be ridiculous for Mox to win and then offer O’Reilly a spot in the Death Riders. O’Reilly’s style certainly fits the mold. I’m not writing off O’Reilly because I’ve been a fan of his forever and I want to see him get a big singles title win, I just don’t know if it’s here.
TK’s booking is the wildcard because he could just decide to be zany this weekend. Who knows. Regardless, my heart says Kyle and the story would fit considering their history, but I think Mox retains and shows respect to O’Reilly after their no time limit Continental championship match. Winner: Jon Moxley
AEW World Championship – Darby Allin (c) vs. MJF: The probable main event of the evening puts Allin’s AEW title on the line against Max’s hair. Since winning the championship he has defended the title seven times at a breakneck pace against Tommaso Ciampa, Brody King, Kevin Knight, Sammy Guevara, PAC, Konosuke Takeshita, and “Speedball” Mike Bailey. To put that into context, during Allin’s two longest TNT title reigns he defended it nine and 10 times respectively, over seven months and six months respectively. He’s threatened those defence limits in one month. That’s the story being told here, and I think they’ve done a great job of communicating that in the ring with Allin physically breaking down match-over-match, becoming more and more exhausted as he goes. To complement that, I think MJF has done a fantastic job of selling the insanity of Allin’s pace, while also actually seeming to show concern, worry for his own well being and disbelief at how resilient and insane Allin has been.
In MJF’s first reign he had 10 defences over 406 days. With the pace Allin is on, if he were to hold the title for the same duration, he would peak around 70 defences. That’s the actual insanity of what Allin has done as an unapologetic fighting champion. That’s also MJF’s point — it isn’t sustainable and the definition of someone burning twice as bright and half as long akin to the Roy Batty monologue in Blade Runner. Allin may have seen the great heights of Everest and the rush of a high octane world title run, but the cost will be his hitpoints as they near zero.
Where MJF is wrong is in his definition of legacy. It isn’t just about longevity and success on those merits; these two gentlemen are defined by their philosophic polarity. That we will remember Allin’s variation of a world championship run as readily as we would a career like Jeff Hardy’s is testament to that. Allin’s run should come to an end here, especially with Forbidden Door, All In and All Out coming up. Realistically, Ospreay vs. MJF is the All In match I think everyone is eyeballing. Kudos to Darby for the run, please sit down and lay in bed for a while. You’ve earned it, you nutjob. Winner: MJF gets to keep his hair.Â
